It was two months prior when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – however currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
