A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
